Analisis Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam menstablisasi persediaan barang di PT. Nusantara Express Mandiri

Abstract

The importance of determining the production’s amount of a company affects the level of sales supplier such as PT Nusantara Express Mandiri. The ability to predict the level of sales is related in determining the inventory stock. This activity has purpose to optimize the required production and avoid excess or shortage of stock items. So far, the owners of PT Nusantara Express Mandiri have only used the previous month's sales amount as a reference to determine the amount of production to be made. That’s why we need a guideline of calculation which can help determine the amount of chicken dumplings to be produced in the following period. The calculation process in this stud uses The Single Exponential Smoothing Method and The Mean Squared Error (MSE) method. The Single Exponential Smoothing method is used to produce a forecast value for the production of an item in the following month. Meanwhile, the Mean Squared Error (MSE) method is used to calculate the error value. Based on the forecasting in this study, the forecasted value of the item’s production on a certain period will be generated so it can help the company to maintain stock availability and increase work effectiveness an efficiency.